Watch Report No.20

Watch Report No.20   Feb. 5, 2020

§As the Prolonged Process of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula Has Entered a New Phase, Now is a Good Time to Review the Events of 2018 and 2019.

From December 28, 2019 to December 31, 2019 — four days, which is longer than usual — the 5th Plenary Meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea was held. According to the KCNA [1], DPRK leader Kim Jong-un stressed the phrase ‘break through head-on’ at the meeting. Anticipating that international economic sanctions against the DPRK would continue, Kim called on citizens and Workers’ Party leaders to overcome (‘breakthrough head-on’) the challenge with self-sufficiency and self-reliance. At the same time, Kim said that national security will require the advancement of strategic weapon development until such time as the United States reverses its hostile policy toward the DPRK and a ‘durable peace mechanism’ is restored on the Korean Peninsula. And, he suggested that the DPRK would possess new strategic weapons. He also added that the prospect of further weapon development might change depending on the US approach towards the DPRK, implying that there was still room for diplomatic negotiations with the US.

In November 2020, the US presidential election will take place. It is unlikely that the US will initiate an approach capable of breaking new ground with the DPRK this year. Taking this into account, along with the DPRK’s ‘break through head-on’ remarks, it is unlikely that there will be rapid development regarding Korean Peninsula denuclearization talks. This is a good time for civil society to plan and effectuate a positive change in the status of the Korean Peninsula denuclearization and peace process.

As a resource for planning, a chronology of major events since 2018, pertinent to Korean Peninsula denuclearization, is provided below.

2018
January 1	In his New Year’s speech, Kim Jong-un declares that the DPRK has accomplished nuclear deterrence; directs mass production of nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles and their deployment; discusses the parallel development of nuclear weapons and the economy and calls on citizens to contribute to his 5-year-strategy for economic development; stresses that North-South tensions must be diffused and that inter-Korean relations must be improved; announces that DPRK delegates may be sent to the Pyeongchang Olympics and inter-Korean diplomatic meetings may be held.
January 9	A ministerial-level meeting between North and South is held for the first time in about two years. The ministers agree that the DPRK will participate in the Pyeongchang Olympics.
February 9-25	Pyeongchang Olympics. Inter-Korean friendship is highlighted with North Korean and South Korean athletes marching together and a joint North-South women’s ice hockey team.
February 10	ROK President Moon Jae-in meets with the DPRK delegation headed by Kim Yo-jong (First Vice Chair of the Central Committee) and Kim Yong-nam (President of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly). Kim Yo-jong delivers Kim Jong-un’s letter to Moon and officially invites Moon to the DPRK.
March 5	The ROK delegation headed by Chung Eui-yong (Director of the National Security Office) and Suh Hoon (Director of the National Intelligence Service) visits Pyongyang, meets with Kim Jong-un. Kim expresses his intention to hold a North-Korea summit and denuclearize the DPRK.
March 6	Chung Eui-yong announces an inter-Korean summit that will be held in Panmunjom late April. The ROK government releases a statement which says that the DPRK does not think that there is a reason for keeping nuclear weapons if military threats against the DPRK are eliminated and security assurances are provided. This constitutes the first official announcement of the DPRK’s intention to denuclearize.
March 8	Chun Eui-yong and others visit Washington DC. US President Donald Trump accepts Kim Jong-un’s request for a US-DPRK summit.
March 25	Kim Jong-un makes a surprise visit to Beijing, his first foreign visit as DPRK leader, and meets with President Xi Jingping. This was his first diplomatic summit outside the DPRK.
March 30(?)	US CIA Director Mike Pompeo visits Pyongyang and holds a secret meeting with Kim Jong-un. He is reportedly in Pyongyang for three days and two nights.
April 20	The 3rd plenum of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea is held. Kim Jong-un: touts the success of the parallel development of the economy and nuclear weapons; emphasizes efforts for economic advancement; announces his decision to suspend nuclear and ICBM launch tests and dismantle a nuclear test site.
April 27	An inter-Korean summit is held at the Peace House in the ROK side of Panmunjom. Kim Jong-un and Moon Jea-in sign the Panmunjom Declaration, agreeing to: improve Inter-Korean relations and ease tensions between North and South; declare the end of the Korean War before the end of the year; and establish a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula through efforts including denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
May 7	The second China-DPRK summit is held in Dalian, China.
May 9	US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visits Pyongyang, secures the release of the three US citizens detained there, and flies them to the Yokota base.
May 10	Donald Trump tweets that a US-DPRK summit is to be held in Singapore on June 12.
May 11	US-ROK joint military exercise Max Thunder begins. (This ends on May 25).   B-52s are part of the exercise.
May 16	Kim Kye-gwan, First Vice Minister of the DPRK Ministry of Foreign Affairs, releases a statement indicating that the US-DPRK summit scheduled to take place in Singapore may be cancelled, attacking both the US National Security Advisor John Bolton’s remarks about the ‘Libya model’ of denuclearization and the US-ROK joint military drills.
May 24	The DPRK invites reporters to witness the dismantling of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Choe Song-hui, First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, calls US Vice President Mike Pence “dummy” and indicates a possible postponement of the US-DPRK summit. Trump cancels the June 12 summit meeting with Kim Jong-un.
May 25	Kim Kye-gwan issues a statement urging Trump to reconsider the cancellation of the summit.
May 26	The second inter-Korean summit is held, as per Kim Jong-un’s request, at the Unification Pavilion in the DPRK side of Panmunjom.
Jun 1	Trump announces that the US-DPRK summit is back on, to be held on June 12 as originally scheduled.
June 12	The US-DPRK summit is held in Singapore, and a joint declaration is issued. The preamble states that Trump has ‘committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK,’ and that Kim has reaffirmed his ‘commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.’ The two leaders agree to: establish ‘new US-DPRK relations’; build ‘a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula’; reaffirm the ‘April 27 Panmunjom Declaration’ including commitment to the ‘complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula’; and work towards recovering US POW remains. Trump tells reporters that the US will suspend its joint military exercise with the ROK, and that Kim Jong-un intends to dismantle a missile engine test facility at Tongchang-ri (often referred to as the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground).
June 18	The US Department of Defense and the ROK Ministry of National Defense announce the suspension of joint exercise Freedom Guardian, which was scheduled to take place in August. (The ROK’s announcement is dated June 19).  Afterwards, a series of large-scale joint military exercises is suspended.
June 19	Kim Jong-un visits China for the third China-DPRK summit.
July 6	Pompeo visits the DPRK, delivers a letter from Trump, and holds talks with DPRK officials. Kim Jong-un hands Pompeo his letter to Trump.
July 7	The DPRK’s foreign ministry spokesperson criticizes ‘gangster-like’ US demands.
July 27	The 65th anniversary of the Korean War Armistice. 55 US soldiers’ remains are returned from the DPRK to the US.
August 23	Stephen Biegun is appointed as US Special Representative for North Korea.
September 14	The first permanent inter-Korean liaison office is established in Kaesong, DPRK, staffed with representatives from both the DPRK and the ROK.
September 19	The third inter-Korean summit is held, and the September Pyongyang Joint Declaration is signed. Defense ministers of both sides sign the ‘Agreement in the Military Domain.’ The DPRK agrees to permanently dismantle its nuclear facilities at Yongbyon if the US takes matching action.
September 29	At a rally in Wheeling, West Virginia, Trump says he and Kim Jong-un ‘fell in love’.
November 30	An inter-Korean railway connection survey begins. (This ends on December 17, 2018).
December 26	The DPRK and the ROK hold a groundbreaking ceremony for the inter-Korean railway connection project at the Panmun Station in Kaesong. However, actual construction work is blocked due to international sanctions.
2019
January 7	Kim Jong-un visits China for the fourth China-DPRK summit.
January 18	Kim Yong-chol, Vice Chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea, meets with Pompeo and then with Trump. Immediately afterwards, Trump announces that the second US-DPRK summit is to be held at the end of February 2019.
January 19-21	Biegun and Choe Song-hui hold the first working-level meeting in Stockholm.
January 31	In his speech at Stanford University, Biegun suggests negotiations with the DPRK could be undertaken with ‘simultaneous and parallel’ progress. This is generally understood to refer to step-by-step negotiations.
February 27-28	The second US-DPRK summit is held in Hanoi. No joint declaration is issued.
March 15	At the press conference in Pyongyang, Choe Song-hui accuses Pompeo and Bolton of ‘creating an atmosphere of hostility and mistrust’ and hardening Trump’s flexible approach.
April 12	In his speech to the First Session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly of the DPRK, Kim Jong-un, anticipating that the sanctions will continue, emphasizes the development of a self-supporting economy. He states the DPRK will wait until the end of the year to see whether the US makes a courageous decision or not.
May 4	The DPRK test-launches a short-range ballistic missile for the first time in 18 months. Thereafter, it continues with on and off  short-range missile tests.
May 6	Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tells reporters that he wants to hold an Japan-DPRK summit without pre-conditions.
May 9	The US Department of Justice directed the seizure of a North Korean cargo ship, Wise Honest, and transports it to American Samoa.
May 14	The DPRK’s foreign ministry condemns the ship seizure by the US, stating that it violates the spirit of the June 12 Singapore Joint Declaration).
May 27-30	The ROK undertakes Ulchi Taegeuk, a large-scale military exercise.
June 4	Prior to the one-year anniversary of the Singapore Declaration, the DPRK foreign ministry spokesperson issues a statement to highly regard the declaration and, at the same time, to criticize the US for failing to fulfil its obligations while making unilateral demands. He calls on the US to make a proposal based on ‘a new way of calculation.’
June 20-21	Xi Jingping visits Pyongyang for the first time to hold the fifth China-DPRK summit.
June 30	The third US-DPRK summit is unexpectedly held in Panmunjom. The meeting lasts for about an hour and Trump steps over the border into North Korea. A working-level team is created, which holds a meeting in a few weeks.
July 11	The policy study director at the DPRK foreign ministry’s Institute for American Studies releases a statement condemning the ROK’s purchase of F-35As, which are scheduled to arrive from the US in mid-July.
August 1	The UN Security Council meets behind closed doors per requests from the UK, Germany, and France in response to the DPRK’s July 31 missile launch.
August 29	The Second Session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) approves a change to the constitution, in which the chairman of the State Affairs Commission is elected at the SPA and will be the supreme representative of all Korean people and the head of the state.
September 10	Trump tweets he has asked John Bolton to resign from his national security advisor position, which Bolton does.
October 2	The DPRK test fires a new type of SLBM Pukguksong 3 in vertical mode from the submerged waters off Wonsan Bay.
October 5	Biegun and Kim Myong-gil, the DPRK chief negotiator with the US, hold working-level talks in Stockholm. After the talks, Kim Myong-gil comments that negotiations have fallen apart. US Department of State spokesperson Morgan Ortagus refutes the characterization, stating that the US has had good 8.5-hour discussions with the DPRK.
October 6	The DPRK foreign ministry spokesperson states that there will not be another US-DPRK summit unless the US presents new proposals. He reiterates that the US has until the end of the year to do so.
October 21	During a cabinet meeting, Trump states that he and Kim Jong-un get along well with each other and respect each other.
October 24	Kim Jong-un proposes the demolition of the South Korean facilities at Mount Kumgang. He criticizes his ‘predecessors’ failed policy’ to depend on foreign countries.
November 14	Kim Myong-gil blames the US for not being ready to make proposals that bring the DPRK to negotiations. He states that the war-end declaration or the establishment of a liaison office are not grounds for negotiations; he further states that new solutions to stop hostile policies against the DPRK are required.
November 17	US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper announces in Bangkok that a US-ROK joint air exercise is postponed.
December 2	Ri Thae-song, the DPRK’s Vice Foreign Minister, warns the US of the end-of-year deadline and states that it is up to the US what Christmas gift it will receive.
December 16	At the UN Security Council, China and Russia circulate a draft resolution to ease sanctions on the DPRK. The US rejects it, arguing that easing sanctions on the DPRK would be premature.
December 28-31	The 5th Plenary Meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea is held, for an unusually long four days. Kim Jong-un stresses the need for overcoming (‘breaking through head-on’) sanctions with self-reliance, and announces the continuing development of strategic weapons.

 (Takuya MORIYAMA & Hiromichi UMEBAYASHI)

[1] “Report on 5th Plenary Meeting of 7th C.C., WPK,” KCNA, January 1, 2020 http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm   Search for the article by date.