§Unnecessary Tension Should Not Be Created About Military Exercises. Military Confidence-Building Requires Gradual Progress.
Based on the 2018 April Panmunjom Declaration and the 2018 September Pyongyang Joint Declaration, both North and South Korea have taken various measures to alleviate military tension and build confidence. The US has also gone along with the two Koreas’ moves, for instance, by suspending large-scale military exercises. Though this development is positive, the significance of the long-term US-ROK alliance should not be underestimated. To successfully implement the agreements on peace and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, it is necessary to take enough time to resolve issues in the military domain and this process will require phased progress.
As the first step toward military confidence building, North and South
Korea worked together to alleviate tension in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), the
front line of military tension. This step was vitally important both
symbolically and practically. The September 19, 2018 “Agreement on the
Implementation of the Historic Panmunjom Declaration in the Military Domain” [1] (hereafter referred to as “the
military agreement”) is a document of vital importance as it acknowledges concrete
implementation measures for issues in the military domain.
In accordance with the military agreement, North and South Korea first
worked together to demilitarize the Joint Security Area in Panmunjom (JSA) and this
was completed on October 25, 2018. Then, from November 11, the two Koreas
implemented agreements to cease all hostile acts against each other in every
domain, including land, air and sea and to establish “buffer zones on ground,
at sea and in the air.” In terms of ground-based operations, the two sides
ceased all live-fire artillery drills and field training exercises at the
regiment level and above, within 5km from the Military Demarcation Line (MDL).
At sea, the two sides ceased all live-fire and maritime maneuver exercises
within the roughly 135-kilometer buffer zone north of ROK’s Deokjeok-do and
south of DPRK’s Cho-do in the West Sea (the Yellow Sea), and within the roughly
80-kilometer [2] buffer zone north
of ROK’s Sokcho and south of DPRK’s Tongcheon in the East Sea (the Japan Sea).
In the air, for fixed-wing aircraft, such as reconnaissance aircraft and
fighter aircraft, no-fly zones were designated within 40km from the MDL in the east
and within 20km from the MDL in the west. For rotary-wing aircraft, no fly
zones were designated within 10km from the MDL, and for unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs), no-fly zones were designated within 15km from the MDL in the east
and 10km form the MDL in the west.
In the military agreement, the two Koreas also agreed to proceed with
a pilot project - an inter-Korean joint operation to recover remains within DMZ
of soldiers killed during the Korean War. And, on November 22, 2018, the ROK Ministry of
Defense reported that they reconnected roads in the DMZ of Cheorwon, Gangwon-do,
central Korean Peninsula, to use them for the project. [3] Also in accordance with the military agreement, in December
2018, the two Koreas withdrew 10 guard posts from each side on a trial basis,
resulting in the withdrawal of 20 guard posts. (The two Koreas each agreed to
preserve one respective guard post for their historical value after disarming
them.) The military agreement’s goal to complete withdrawal of guard posts by
December 31, 2018 was achieved. [4]
Thus far, the US has also continued to restrain itself militarily to
reduce tension on the Korean Peninsula. Measures to ease tension in the DMZ
described above required the understanding and cooperation of the United
Nations Command (UNC). In particular, regarding demilitarization of the JSA and
its operations thereafter, a trilateral consultative body among South Korea,
North Korea and the UNC was established and has conducted consultations.
Commander of US Forces, Korea (USFK) who is also commander of ROK-US Combined
Forces Command (CFC), serves concurrently as Commander of UNC. It was reported
that the USFK expressed some disagreement regarding measures to reduce military
tension agreed upon by the two Koreas, however, in general the USFK has thus
far been cooperative.
As mentioned at the beginning of this report, large-scale US-ROK
combined military exercises have been suspended or scaled down. In 2018, the US
and ROK reduced the number of the US-ROK combined Marine military drills. These
drills were originally planned to take place 19 times from October 2017 to
September 2018, but in June 2018, by which time eleven such drills had been
carried out, they announced suspension of the drills, and as a result, the
remaining 8 drills were canceled. [5]
Additionally, according to the announcement made by the ROK military authority
on November 27, no US bombers have been deployed over the Korean Peninsula for
almost one year. [6] According to
the US forces, the move came at the request of the ROK government. [7] Furthermore, on November 21, at a
press conference in Washington D.C., regarding the large-scale US-ROK combined
field exercise “Foal Eagle”, which is held annually in March or April, then-US
Secretary of Defense, James Mattis, announced that they were considering scaling
back the exercise in spring 2019, saying “Foal Eagle is being reorganized a bit
to keep it at – at a level that will not be harmful to diplomacy.” [8] Also on October 19, during the
meeting of US Secretary of Defense and ROK Minister of National Defense, the
two sides agreed to suspend the large-scale US-ROK combined air combat drills,
“Vigilant Ace” in 2018 which had been conducted annually in December. According
to the senior spokesperson for US Department of Defense, Dana White, the reason
for the suspension was “to give the diplomatic process every opportunity to
continue.” [9]
As described above, thus far, with a stance of prioritizing the diplomatic
process, the US Department of Defense has cooperated with inter-Korean efforts
for reconciliation reducing negative impacts on the DPRK.
However, if discussions between the US and the DPRK remain deadlocked,
it would be difficult to predict how long this US’s cooperative stance would be
maintained. The Joint Communique issued after the 50th US-ROK Security
Consultative Meeting (SCM) [10] held
in Washington, DC on October 31, 2018, tells us that it will require
considerable effort by concerned states to harmonize the two Koreas’ efforts at
military confidence-building and current situation of US-ROK security system.
Regarding the implementation of the military agreement, the Joint
Communique of the 50th US-ROK SCM states that, “the agreement should be
implemented in a way that contributes substantively to easing tension and
establishing peace while ensuring combined readiness and committed to continue
to maintain close coordination and cooperation between US and ROK defense
authorities during the process of implementation.” In short, both sides agreed
to maintain combat readiness of US-ROK Combined Forces. Not only that, despite
the fact that both the US and South Korea have been calling for the DPRK to
denuclearize and trying to realize “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,”
the US reaffirms “the continued US commitment to provide extended deterrence to
the ROK using the full range of military capabilities, including US nuclear,
conventional, and missile defense capabilities.” That is, it clearly states
that the US will continue to provide its “nuclear umbrella.” This means that
the US and South Korea expressed something equivalent to the DPRK’s saying, “We
will continue to maintain its nuclear deterrent capability.” As just described,
to advance confidence-building in the military domain, many issues remain that
need to be resolved.
In this situation of such a delicate balance, on December 3, 2018,
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) announced that the Republic of Korea
Air Force (ROKAF) would conduct independent “consolidated training for combat
readiness” from December 3 to 7. [11]
With US-ROK combined air combat drill, “Vigilant Ace,” cancelled, the aim of
the training is to maintain military readiness. Considering the Joint
Communique mentioned above, as well as the general military logic that military
capabilities must be maintained, such training can be considered as something
reasonably expected under current situation.
However, on December 4, 2018, the DPRK state run media, the Korean
Central News Agency (KCNA), issued an article which condemns ROKAF’s
independent training. [12] According
to the UPI’s report of December 4, KCNA stated, “This is a dangerous military
movement that reverses the situation of trust-building measures and
reconciliation between North and South.” And, after pointing out the aim of
training by stating, “South Korea’s joint chiefs of staff has publicly declared
the air force training is to maintain military readiness and improve pilots’
ability to carry out missions,” KCNA stated that South Korea, “should stop all
war exercises that could create conflict.” [13]
In response to the announcement that Foal Eagle would be conducted at
a small scale, another North Korean state run online outlet, the Arirang-Meari, issued an article on
December 2, 2018, stating that, “combined US-ROK military exercises of all
scales should be suspended as well.” [14]
Those critical responses from North Korean
media are quite understandable, unless they become the policy of the North
Korean leadership and go too far. In the DPRK, soldiers can be engaged in
farming and fishing as needed, but in many other countries, in time of peace,
soldiers have no duty other than training and exercises. Unfortunately, in
those countries, even when tension is easing, disarmament has to advance
gradually. However, even though the pace may be slow, progress can be made in
confidence-building by demonstrating a willingness to disarm and make tangible
changes. In connection with alleviation of tension on the Korean Peninsula, on
November 5, 2018, during a forum at Duke University, Joseph Dunford, chairman
of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, made suggestive statements as follows. [15] “The more successful we are in
the diplomatic track, the more uncomfortable we will be in the military space,”
and “Because over time, this negotiation will take a form where we’re going to
have to start making some changes to the military posture on the peninsula. And
we’re prepared to do that in support of Secretary Pompeo.”
It is essential that
concerned states deepen mutual understanding concerning the pace of easing
tension and disarmament in the military domain. This holds true not only for
North and South Korea and the US, but also for Japan and China, which are
closely related to the military situation in this region.
[1] “Agreement on the Implementation of the Historic Panmunjom Declaration in the Military Domain” The National Committee on North Korea
[1] “Agreement on the Implementation of the Historic Panmunjom Declaration in the Military Domain” The National Committee on North Korea
[2] 尹相虎「南北の陸海空緩衝区域１日から施行、一切の軍事訓練中止」, Donga Ilbo, November 1, 2018
http://japanese.donga.com/Home/3/all/27/1525310/1
(in Japanese language)
[3] “(2nd LD) Koreas connect road inside heavily fortified DMZ,” Yonhap News Agency, November 22, 2018
[4] ”(2nd LD) S. Korea confirms disablement of N.K.
DMZ guard posts,” Yonhap News Agency,
December 17, 2018
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20181217005552315?section=search
[5] ”S. Korean, U.S. to resume marine exercise,” Yonhap News Agency, November 4, 2018
[6] “(LEAD) S. Korea, U.S. continue 'higher-level'
exercises off peninsula: U.S. general,” Yonhap
News Agency, November 27, 2018
[7] See note [6].
[8] “Media Availability with
Secretary Mattis,” U.S. Department of Defense, November 21, 2018
[9] Robert BURNS, “US and South Korea again call off a
major military exercise,” AP, October 20, 2018. https://www.apnews.com/7c4c40989a98451493664fb11f27f861
[10] "Joint Communiqué of the 50th U.S.-ROK
Security Consultative Meeting," U.S. Department of Defense, October 31,
2018.
[11] Kang-moon Yoo, “S. Korean Air Force to conduct comprehensive
battle readiness drills until Dec. 7,” Hankyoreh,
December 4, 2018
[12] ”남조선공군 전투준비태세유지 위한 종합훈련 시작”
KCNA, December 4, 2018.
http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-k.htm Search
for the article from date (In Korean language)
[13] Elizabeth Shim, “North Korea condemns South's air
force exercises,” UPI, December 4, 2018
[14] See note [11].
[15] Idrees Ali, and Phil Stewart, “U.S.-North Korea
talks could affect U.S. military posture in Korea: Dunford,” Reuters, November
6, 2018.
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